MANILA, Philippines – Southeast Asian leaders are moving urgently to assess the economic and geopolitical fallout from a rapidly intensifying conflict in the Middle East, as ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) convene a series of meetings on Friday to coordinate their response to mounting energy and trade disruptions.
Economic ministers from the 10-nation bloc gathered for a retreat hosted by the Philippines, this year’s ASEAN chair, while foreign ministers scheduled a separate emergency virtual meeting to discuss the wider diplomatic and security implications of the crisis. Officials say the conflict has already begun to rattle global markets and could undermine growth across Southeast Asia’s export-dependent economies.
“The concern is a given,” Philippine Trade Undersecretary Allan Gepty told reporters ahead of the meetings, noting that the region must prepare for the impact on inflation, employment and supply chains.
The crisis intensified after joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran nearly two weeks ago triggered a broader regional confrontation that has killed roughly 2,000 people, according to preliminary international assessments. The escalation has sent shock waves through global energy markets, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and sharply increasing shipping insurance costs and freight rates across key maritime routes.
Analysts say the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows — has become the most immediate concern for Asian economies. Much of that energy supply is destined for Asia, making Southeast Asia particularly vulnerable to prolonged disruption.
Economists at international energy agencies and financial institutions warn that sustained supply shocks could drive inflation across the region while slowing manufacturing output. Southeast Asia’s trade-dependent economies, which rely heavily on stable shipping routes and affordable fuel, could face higher logistics costs and weakened export demand if the conflict drags on.
Several ASEAN governments have already begun adopting emergency measures to cushion the economic impact.
The Philippines, which imports a large share of its oil from the Middle East, has shortened the government workweek in an effort to conserve fuel. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also asked Congress for authority to suspend fuel excise taxes to contain rising transportation and food costs.
Vietnam has adjusted retail fuel prices after a temporary easing in global crude markets, though officials warned that volatility will persist amid uncertain supply conditions. In Thailand, the government recently halted most energy exports, except to neighboring Laos and Myanmar, as part of efforts to safeguard domestic reserves.
The disruption has also tightened liquefied natural gas supplies after Qatar temporarily halted some shipments, a move that has raised concerns among Southeast Asian importers reliant on Gulf energy supplies.
Regional officials say coordination among ASEAN members will be critical as the crisis unfolds.
“It is important that our actions and responses to the ongoing conflicts must be synchronized,” Mr. Gepty said, emphasizing the need for unified policies to maintain economic stability and supply chain resilience.
ASEAN’s foreign ministers have already issued a statement expressing deep concern over the escalating violence, calling the developments “particularly regrettable” and urging all parties to cease hostilities. The ministers also called for restraint, protection of civilians and renewed diplomatic dialogue in accordance with international law.
While ASEAN has historically avoided direct involvement in conflicts beyond its borders, analysts say the magnitude of the current energy shock is forcing the bloc to take a more coordinated stance. With Southeast Asia accounting for some of the world’s fastest-growing energy demand and a large share of global manufacturing exports, the region’s economic stability is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical developments far beyond its shores.
For now, policymakers across the region are bracing for prolonged uncertainty, as governments weigh how to balance economic stability with the possibility that the Middle East crisis could reshape global energy flows and trade patterns in the months ahead.