MANILA, Philippines – President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned on Tuesday that some flights in the Philippines could be grounded if a deepening fuel crunch, driven by the war in the Middle East, worsens in the weeks ahead — a remark that underscored how a distant conflict is now threatening to disrupt one of Southeast Asia’s most fuel-dependent aviation markets.

In remarks reported by Bloomberg and confirmed by Reuters, Mr. Marcos said the problem was no longer limited to high crude prices. The bigger strain, he suggested, was in refined fuel, particularly jet fuel, which has tightened more sharply than crude as supply routes through the Gulf have been disrupted and refining capacity has come under pressure. He said some foreign airports had already restricted refueling for Philippine aircraft, forcing airlines to carry enough fuel for onward and return legs — a costly workaround that is especially difficult on long-haul routes.

“We’re hoping not, but it’s a possibility. It’s a distinct possibility,” Mr. Marcos said when asked whether planes could be grounded.

The warning came hours before the administration escalated its response, with Mr. Marcos declaring a state of national energy emergency for one year and activating a whole-of-government crisis framework to secure fuel supplies and manage knock-on effects on inflation, transport and essential goods. Reuters and the Associated Press reported that the order allows faster procurement and tighter coordination across agencies as the country confronts mounting supply and price risks.

For now, the government says the country is not yet running out of fuel. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the Philippines still had roughly 45 days of fuel supply on average, including 38.62 days for jet fuel, based on company inventories and current consumption. Officials are seeking to add at least one million barrels to reserves while pursuing alternative supply arrangements outside the Gulf.

But the market pressure is already visible. Cebu Pacific, the country’s largest budget carrier, said this week that it would suspend some routes and trim frequencies on others as fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict surged, with the airline saying jet fuel prices had risen to more than double 2025 averages. Reuters also reported that Cebu Pacific is fully unhedged, leaving it unusually exposed to the current price shock.

Passengers will soon feel more of the burden. The Civil Aeronautics Board said the fuel surcharge for flights booked from April 1 to April 15 would rise to Level 8 and, for the first time, would be adjusted on a 15-day cycle rather than monthly because of extreme volatility. The advisory confirms Level 8 for that period; Philippine media, citing the board’s surcharge matrix, said this translates to added charges of P253 to P787 on domestic flights and P835.06 to P6,208.98 on international tickets originating in the Philippines.

The government has tried to soften the blow. The Department of Transportation announced a 50 percent fare discount on MRT-3 and LRT-2 starting March 23, while airport terminal and landing fees are set to be reduced from April 1 to help airlines and passengers cope with higher fuel costs. A broader P2.5 billion fuel subsidy program for public utility vehicle operators has also begun.

The crisis is not uniquely Philippine. Around the world, airlines and governments are reacting to the same shock: a disruption that analysts say is hitting refined products faster than crude itself. The International Energy Agency said in its March oil market report that attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and the halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent prices sharply higher and injected severe volatility into fuel markets. IATA’s latest fuel monitor said the global average jet fuel price rose 12.6 percent week on week to $197 a barrel.

That is why the Philippine problem has become part of a wider aviation story. Reuters reported last week that European carriers were also warning of fare increases as fuel prices doubled in Europe and jumped about 80 percent in Asia, while executives said shortages of jet fuel in Asia had become a real operational risk. Japan, highly dependent on Middle Eastern imports, has announced its largest-ever release of oil reserves; Vietnam has tapped a fuel-price stabilization fund; and Cambodia has turned to Singapore and Malaysia after supply restrictions from neighboring sources.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines has also pushed for a regional response. As chair of ASEAN this year, Manila convened a special ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting on March 13 to address the Middle East conflict and its implications for energy and trade. ASEAN’s newer petroleum-security framework, endorsed in late 2025, is now being cast as a key regional backstop against supply disruptions.

Domestically, the political response has widened as well. The Senate adopted Resolution No. 343 on March 11, urging the executive branch to establish a national contingency framework for major crises, including those stemming from supply-chain disruptions and oil shocks. That resolution now looks less precautionary than prescient.

For the moment, Manila’s message is twofold: there is no immediate collapse in fuel supply, but the margin for error is narrowing. The government is still searching for alternative barrels — Reuters reported that talks have involved India, China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Brunei, while officials have also signaled openness to Russian crude under changed shipping conditions — yet much depends on whether the disruption in Gulf energy routes eases soon.

What began as a geopolitical shock is becoming a logistical and economic test at home. If the fighting persists, the Philippines may avoid a full grounding of aircraft — but only at the cost of higher fares, thinner flight schedules and a government increasingly forced to manage the spillover from a war far beyond its shores.